From what I've read, the watts per gallon will depend on how much above room temperature you'll need to raise the water temp. If you're going to need to raise it something like 15 or 20F above room temp, you should go for more like 10 watts per gallon.
From the posts I've read, and the experiences I've had in the last year or so with heaters, it seems a lot of them really suck. I've had 5 heaters die in the last year... two were less than a week old, one was about 8 months old, one about a year old and one was 5 or more years old. Luckily only one got stuck on hot, and it was in a large tank, so no one got fried.